FRENCH SAY WHEAT STOCKS FORECAST NO SURPRISE
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture's
  forecast that French end-of-season soft wheat stocks will
  almost double in 1987/88 is premature but would not be
  surprising, according to French cereal organisation officials.
      The Cereals Intervention Board, ONIC, Wheat Producers'
  Association and the National Union of Agricultural and Cereal
  Cooperatives have not yet forecast 1987/88 exports or
  end-of-season stocks.
      However, the officials said the USDA's figure of end
  1987/88 stocks at 5.03 mln tonnes against 1986/87's 2.87 mln
  was not surprising given a record high yield forecast in April.
      The French Feed Cereals Research Institute, ITCF, forecast
  in mid-April an average yield of 6.58 tonnes per hectare for
  soft wheat in 1987/88 compared with 5.6 tonnes in 1986/87 and
  the record high yield of 6.5/6.6 tonnes in 1984.
      This would result in a French soft wheat harvest of around
  31 mln tonnes against 25.5 mln in 1986/87, given a Ministry of
  Agriculture estimate of area planted of 4.66 mln hectares
  against 4.61 mln in 1986/87.
      ONIC's first preliminary forecast of the 1987/88 campaign
  will be released at the beginning of September, an ONIC
  official said.
      Soft wheat exports in 1987/88 were extremely difficult to
  estimate at this stage, both within the European Community and
  to non-EC countries, an ONIC official said.
      He said, however, that among countries to which France
  could increase its wheat exports were Egypt and the Maghreb
  countries (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), he said.
      The USDA's forecast of an 11.65 mln tonne maize crop in
  1987/88 against 11.48 mln in 1986/87, while again premature,
  was not out of line with estimates of the French Maize
  Producers Association, AGPM, an AGPM official said.
      Maize plantings would be down in 1987/88 but yields were
  expected to be higher, the AGPM official said.
      It estimated 1987/88 maize plantings of 1.73 mln hectares,
  down seven pct from the 1.87 mln hectares planted in 1986/87.
  

